NZ Fishing World

Typical Kiwi Summer Expected

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The NIWA National Climate Centre’s outlook for early summer, November 2011 to January 2012, indicates that temperatures are likely to be near average across all of the North Island and average or above average in the South Island.
Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be near normal in all regions of the country. The Centre notes that significant rain in October has improved soil moisture deficits in many regions, apart from coastal Wairarapa and the Gisborne region.

La Nina conditions have redeveloped in the tropical Pacific, and weak to moderate La Nina conditions are likely to continue through the summer, according to the NIWA National Climate Centre.
The outlook states that mean sea level pressures during the November-January period as a whole are likely to be near normal or above normal across New Zealand, with weaker westerlies over the country.
For the tropical cyclone season (November to May), the chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is below the long-term average. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.

Overall Picture

Temperature:
For the November-January period as a whole, air temperatures are likely to be near average over the North Island and average or above average over the South Island. Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain near normal around New Zealand.

Rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows:
The National Climate Centre says that early summer rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be near normal in all regions of the country.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:
Temperatures are likely to be near average for the time of year. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range.
Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

                                 Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average    30%                 35%          35%                  30%
Near average        50%                 45%         45%                   40%
Below average    20%                  20%         20%                  30%

Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:
Temperatures in the early summer period are likely to be near average. Rainfall totals are likely to be in the normal range, as are soil moisture levels and river flows, for the three months as a whole.
Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

                               Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average       30%             30%        30%                 35%
Near average          50%             50%         50%                45%
Below average       20%             20%         20%                20%

Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa:
Temperatures are likely to be average for the time of year, and rainfall is likely to be in the normal range. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal.
Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above normal, near normal, and below normal. The full probability breakdown is:

                               Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average    30%               30%         30%                   30%
Near average       50%                50%        50%                    45%
Below average   20%               20%         20%                    25%

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:
Temperatures are likely to be average or above average for the time of year, while rainfall is likely to be in the normal range. Soil moisture levels and river flows are also likely to be near normal.
Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

                                Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average  40%                 20%         20%                   20%
Near average     40%                 50%         50%                   50%
Below average 20%                 30%         30%                    30%

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:
Temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average for the time of year. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range, over the November to January period as a whole.
Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

                                Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average   40%                 20%         20%                   20%
Near average      40%                  50%        45%                   45%
Below average   20%                 30%         35%                   35%

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:
Temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average, and rainfall is likely to be in the normal range, over the November to January period as a whole. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be in the normal range.

Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

                                Temperature-Rainfall-Soil moisture-River flows
Above average    40%                20%         30%                   25%
Near average       40%                50%         45%                   50%
Below average    20%                30%        25%                   25%

Source: NIWA